The Drawdown

May 1, 2026 · Duration Team

← Back to Insights

The Topline

Macro

Late-stage venture debt deal sizes hit decade highs in Q1 2026 with the median at $10.8M and the average at $68.2M (PitchBook-NVCA) — AI-era borrowers are turning to lenders rather than dilutive equity to bridge to product, revenue, or the next valuation reset.

Structure

Q1 2026 redemption requests across the largest non-traded BDCs and perpetual private credit funds totaled $20.8 billion, and three of the largest perpetual funds capped quarterly withdrawals within a six-week window — a break in the liquidity promise that defined this fund structure, and one that will pressure fees and capital raising across the cohort.

Risk

Moody's cut its outlook on private credit BDCs to negative on April 7, 2026 — the first such revision in over two years — flagging redemption pressure, rising leverage, and the risk that AI erodes the software borrowers that make up roughly 25% of BDC portfolios on a median basis.

Duration Insights

Who Are Your Lenders…Really?

Private credit, like venture capital, has evolved from a cottage industry into a capital markets machine. The sources of capital now span insurance companies, government programs, bank deposits, and securitizations through to institutional LPs, family offices, and retail. As a prospective borrower, you probably have some idea of where the money for your loan comes from. But fully fleshing out this question may be just as important as the terms you receive.

For example, let’s look at a traditional GP/LP credit fund. Compare a fund with 10 LPs, where one LP represents half the capital, to a 150-LP fund with no anchor or concentration. These two funds will act very differently across various scenarios. The GP of the 150-LP fund likely has full control over investment decisions and portfolio management. That means they can handle a default with grace, because they are closest to the problem and can help the company work through it. The GP of the concentrated LP fund, by contrast, may need to seek approval for a simple waiver, which could throw off a major transaction for the borrower.

As you look at offers from different lenders, make sure you know who the true lenders are, what motivates them, what constraints or risks your GP bears, and how that could impact your business in the future.

— Kevin Houston, Duration Growth Advisors

Recent Debt Financings

Technology & FinTech
HealthTech & Biotech
HardTech & CleanTech

Platform & Capital Moves

Fundraising & Capital Formation
Market Expansion & Launches

Recommended Reading

Dave Friedman

The Trophy Deal Trap

Why CoreWeave's investment-grade rating reflects Meta's anchor MSA and take-or-pay structure, not a precedent the rest of the GPU debt market can replicate.

Supercruise Capital

Vertical vs. Horizontal

The old software defensibility playbook is incomplete in the AI era; only core technical differentiation creates a durable moat.

On Our Radar