The Drawdown

June 1, 2026 · Duration Team

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The Topline

Macro

US venture debt hit a record $68.8 billion in 2025, even as deal count held flat year-over-year near 1,000 — the growth came from bigger deals, not more of them (Runway Growth-PitchBook, May 2026). On the equity side, AI dominated, absorbing 63.5% of all US venture dollars in 2025.

Structure

AI and data-center borrowing is maturing into a multi-tier debt market — in May 2026 CoreWeave, Lambda, Nscale and Applied Digital closed more than $5 billion combined, extending a category that first reached investment grade earlier in 2026.

Risk

Credit is softening at the margin across the venture-lending BDC cohort: per our Q1 2026 analysis, all six tracked lenders now mark their loans below original cost and several booked fresh non-accruals, though absolute discounts remain modest. With 2025's heavy borrowing layered on high startup leverage (PitchBook), the cohort is more exposed if borrower revenue disappoints.

Recent Debt Financings

AI & Data-Center Infrastructure
FinTech & Consumer
HealthTech & Biotech

Platform & Capital Moves

Fundraising & Capital Formation
Market Expansion & Launches

Recommended Reading

Credit Crunch

Milken: Private Credit's Dispersion Has Been Abnormally Compressed

A Milken readout and Neuberger note argue the BDC sell-off reflects liquidity needs and repositioning, not credit deterioration, with manager dispersion unusually compressed near 250bps.

Euclid Ventures

SaaSpocalypse Now

After the SaaS selloff, the market rewarded only usage-priced "agentic infrastructure," assigning near-zero value to vertical software's data and workflow moats — the very moats AI should make more valuable.

The Afterburner

The Retreat From Software And Why It's the Wrong Call

AI spending isn't eating software budgets — it is the budget; for deeply embedded enterprise products AI is leverage, and the entry window won't stay open.

From Duration Growth

Q1 ’26 Venture Debt BDC Analysis

Our quarterly read on the six venture-lending BDCs (TRIN, TPVG, RWAY, HRZN, HTGC, OTF) as a proxy for the venture/growth debt market: all six now mark loans below cost, non-accruals are creeping up, and a 2026 maturity wall is taking shape. Read the full analysis →

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