The Drawdown

April 1, 2026 · Duration Team

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The Topline

Macro

AI infrastructure capex hit $400 billion in 2025 against just $60 billion in end-user revenue — a 7:1 capital gap now landing squarely on debt markets, highlighted in March by CoreWeave's $8.5 billion facility becoming the first GPU-backed financing to earn investment-grade ratings.

Structure

Portfolio yields fell 80–200 bps across the six public venture debt BDCs in 2025, yet the spread between the highest and lowest yielding lenders widened from 470 to 620 bps — pricing is stratifying by check size, with sub-$30M lenders holding above 15% all-in while $50M+ platforms compress below 10%.

Risk

A $742M maturity wall hits the BDC cohort this year — a concentration of refinancing risk that will pressure borrowers to find replacement capital or force lenders into extensions and restructurings.

Duration Insights

GPU financing has entered the institutional ABS market and we’re watching closely.

CoreWeave’s $8.5 billion investment-grade facility that closed in March is the moment this got real. It’s the first time GPU-backed lending earned institutional-grade ratings: A3 from Moody’s, A-low from DBRS. That pulls the whole category out of venture debt (high-yield, sponsor-backed, equity kickers) and into infrastructure debt (investment-grade, collateral-backed, fixed coupons).

What we find interesting is the number of question marks here versus more traditional ABS markets like mortgages and autos. These GPU deals have one key input with huge uncertainty: salvage value of the collateral. Will these chips still be useful in 1, 5, or 10 years given the pace of improvement in each new wave of chips hitting the market? Lenders are thinking about this by:

  1. Building a cushion on value with conservative loan-to-value (LTV);
  2. Monitoring rental rate curves across chip vintages and where the market is heading;
  3. Amortizing loans quickly to proactively de-risk the rental rate curves; and
  4. Requiring a healthy balance across off-taker contract lengths and underwriting the credit risk on the off-takers to reduce market volatility.

With all that said, these deals can be structured to earn a healthy credit rating and access cheaper debt markets, and demand for these chips has only increased since the advent of AI.

AI infrastructure will absorb more than $3.5 trillion in cumulative investment through 2030. That money has to come from somewhere, and equity can’t carry it alone. Debt markets are absorbing the load. Understanding how that debt is being priced, collateralized, and managed is not optional anymore.

Duration is working on a few transactions in this market and we welcome conversations across originators, off-takers, and lenders as this asset class continues to heat up.

— Kevin Houston, Duration Growth Advisors

Recent Debt Financings

Technology & FinTech
HealthTech & Biotech

Platform & Capital Moves

Consolidation
Fundraising & Capital Formation
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