Q4 ’25 BDC Analysis

March 2026 · Duration Team

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The Quarter at a Glance

Aggregate portfolio principal grew $1.56B quarter over quarter. 52 new borrowers entered the loan tape ($1.43B in outstanding principal) while 39 exited ($721M). OTF drove the lion's share at +$1.25B QoQ, but HTGC (+$186M) and TRIN (+$186M) both posted meaningful growth. TPVG (−$67M) and RNWY (−$16M) contracted slightly.

Credit quality shifted in different directions. HRZN and TRIN both saw FV discounts (cost minus fair value as a percentage) tighten meaningfully QoQ — signs of healthy portfolio seasoning. TPVG's discount narrowed too, but the portfolio still carries four companies on non-accrual ($39.7M in cost marked down to $17.1M). At the other end, HTGC maintained a slight FV premium on its $4.2B portfolio, with non-accruals at just 0.2%.

New Deal Activity

52 new borrowers entered the loan tape in Q4, totaling $1.43B in outstanding principal. Here's how the new originations broke down:

BDC New Principal Median All-In Rate Exit Fees
OTF16$867M$40.8M~9.0%None
HTGC14$199M$10.7M~9.7%2–8%
TRIN7$197M$24.9M~11.5%0–4%
TPVG7$96M$11.9M~10.6%1–4%
HRZN4$41M$5.9M~11.6%3–4%
RNWY4$32M$6.0M~13.3%2–5%

Source: Q4 2025 Loan Tape. All-in rates estimated from stated spreads over SOFR/Prime.

OTF's two largest new originations were One Inc at $144.3M and Clio at $80.6M — the latter including PIK components. TRIN's new activity included Candel Therapeutics, reflecting continued appetite in clinical-stage biotech. HTGC's exit fee structure (2–8%) remains one of the most aggressive in the cohort, providing meaningful yield pickup on loan terminations.

Exit Fee Gap

OTF writes none. Every other lender in the cohort charges them on most new originations — typically 2–5% of outstanding principal. Over a large enough portfolio, that delta compounds into a material yield difference that headline spread comparisons don't capture.

Yield Divergence

Yield compression was a defining theme across the cohort in 2025. Rate cuts from the Fed, spread tightening in the venture lending market, and portfolio mix shifts all contributed. But the degree of divergence widened — and that divergence matters for anyone underwriting against BDC income.

BDC FY 2025 FY 2024 YoY Change
HRZN15.8%15.6%+20 bps
TRIN15.3%16.1%−80 bps
RNWY14.6%14.9%−30 bps
TPVG13.7%15.7%−200 bps
HTGC12.8%13.9%−110 bps
OTF9.6%10.9%−130 bps

Source: FY 2025 10-K filings.

The spread between the highest and lowest yielding lender in the cohort widened from 470 bps to 620 bps year over year. HRZN is the lone exception to the compression trend, adding 20 bps. TPVG's 200 bps drop is the most significant — a combination of rate environment headwinds and non-accrual drag on effective portfolio yield.

What's Ahead: 2026 Maturity Wall

~$742M in principal matures across five BDCs in 2026. For smaller portfolios, that concentration represents a meaningful refinancing test — particularly in an environment where sponsors are more selective about which assets they recapitalize.

BDC 2026 Maturities % of Portfolio
HTGC$317M7.5%
TRIN$151M6.9%
RNWY$134M15.1%
TPVG$100M15.3%
HRZN$40M8.7%

Source: Q4 2025 Loan Tape maturity dates. OTF excluded.

TPVG and RNWY face the most concentrated exposure as a percentage of portfolio. Watch for extension activity, amendment volume, and whether non-accrual rates tick up as these maturities approach. HTGC's $317M figure is the largest in absolute terms but represents a smaller share of a much larger book.

Lender Positioning

OTF continues to operate at a distinct size and structure relative to the rest of the cohort. The $1.25B QoQ growth is primarily concentrated in large, single-name positions — One Inc and Clio together represent over $225M. The no-exit-fee structure and lower all-in yield suggest a strategy built around volume and relationship depth rather than fee extraction.

HTGC maintains the best credit profile in the cohort by a wide margin. A slight FV premium on a $4.2B portfolio at 0.2% non-accruals is a remarkable result for venture lending at scale. Exit fees of 2–8% on new originations provide meaningful yield enhancement over the stated coupon.

TRIN shows strong new origination velocity at $197M across seven borrowers, with an all-in rate of ~11.5% and moderate exit fees. The Candel Therapeutics position reflects a continued appetite for clinical-stage biotech risk. The 6.9% 2026 maturity load is manageable.

TPVG remains the most stressed name in the cohort. Four companies on non-accrual ($39.7M cost, $17.1M fair value) plus a 200 bps yield decline in FY 2025 and 15.3% of portfolio maturing in 2026 creates a compounding pressure environment. New originations of $96M show the platform is still active, but the watch list warrants attention.

HRZN is the standout on yield preservation — the only lender in the cohort to expand yield YoY. New origination volume was modest at $41M, but the quality of the credit profile and exit fee structure (3–4%) on new deals supports the income profile going forward.

RNWY posted the highest new deal yield in the cohort at ~13.3%, reflecting a smaller-check, higher-risk appetite. The 15.1% 2026 maturity concentration is elevated. Exit fees of 2–5% are in line with peers. Watch for how the BC Partners integration following the Runway acquisition affects origination strategy.

PIK: Same Acronym, Different Economics

HTGC carries a 53.7% PIK rate across its portfolio at an average PIK yield of 2.68% — a modest pick-up that is well-covered by the underlying credit quality. TPVG's PIK penetration is 28.7% but at an average rate of 8.42%, suggesting it is being used to accommodate stressed borrowers rather than as a standard deal structure. The distinction matters when assessing portfolio quality.

Emerging: Secondary Market Activity

HTGC sold $54.5M in loans to third parties during Q4 — a notable development for a cohort that has historically held positions to maturity. Secondary market liquidity in venture debt remains thin, but HTGC's activity suggests the infrastructure for more active portfolio management is developing. Worth watching as a leading indicator of how larger lenders manage concentration risk going forward.

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The BDC Quarterly is produced by Duration Growth Advisors. For questions or to discuss deal flow, contact michael@durationgrowth.com or schedule a call with Kevin.